HAS THE WEST FALLEN INTO A GRAND TRAP?

To anyone getting their news from mainstream Western media, it would appear that a Ukrainian victory over Russia is preordained and China is about to sink into a terminal economic crisis. But, what if the actions of those two great powers have been coordinated and deliberate for much longer than most assume? Could the West be making a series of short-sighted errors, ranging from the battlefield to the banks?

Military mistakes and lessons forgotten

With so much hype in the Western media about Leopards for Ukraine, specifically of the heavily armored variety, let’s first cast our mind back to World War II. 

In spring 1945, the Soviet Red Army bulldozered its way into the remains of the Nazi Third Reich from the east. As any military historian will tell you, although the Soviets had some decent equipment, victory was primarily achieved through brute force of numbers. 

Indeed, in terms of technical prowess, by 1945 the German war machine was equipped with some of the finest weapons of the Second World War - Panther and Tiger I and II tanks, the first modern assault rifles, Messerschmitt Me 262 jet fighters, and Arado Ar 234 jet bombers, Type XXI submarines, V2 ballistic missiles, and even the first guided weapons. 

Germany would have won if the war's outcome had come down mainly to military tech. But, it didn’t. The impressive German machines were complicated and slow to produce, and when deployed were hampered by fuel, ammunition, and manpower shortages (which round-the-clock Allied strategic bombing was continually exacerbating). 

The point is, it seems the west has forgotten the lessons of World War II. On the other hand, the Russians understand that when it comes to playing the long game, stamina is everything. If your entire defense is reliant on high-tech weapons and well-trained troops, but you simply aren’t going to be able to replace them quickly enough, you’re going to be in trouble - no matter how impressive your early performance is. 

I strongly suspect Putin understands this and is deliberately trying to run down Ukraine’s stocks of advanced Western-supplied weapons and munitions. This explains why he is committing so much junk to the battlefield too. While most mainstream western observers love to mock when they see the Russians commit ancient T-55 and T-62 tanks to a modern battlefield, they would do well to remember that destroying each one uses up an advanced anti-tank missile, like an NLAW or Javelin, just as effectively as more modern armor. Of course, this way of thinking is abhorrent to most Europeans and Americans - but Russia has form. Remember, in World War II it wasn’t unusual for the Soviets to station NKVD troops behind an advance to shoot anyone who dared to fall back.

A formidable alliance forms

But, the military aspect is just one facet of what I suspect is a major power play currently unfolding in the east. Specifically, a Russian-Chinese-Iranian plan to form a powerful new power bloc to counter American dominance, militarily, economically, and politically. In terms of sheer power potential, such a bloc is a game-changer. Geographically, the three countries quite literally (if you include likely allies/client states like Kazakhstan, Uzbekistan, Turkmenistan, and Kyrgyzstan) ‘have each other’s backs,’ and are part of a contiguous land mass. 

Unlike the US and its European allies, trade between Russia, China, and Iran wouldn’t need to rely on horribly vulnerable shipping and air routes. Indeed, investment in overland transport links, from roads and railways to pipelines has been increasing for some time. Sure, right now, most Russian and Iranian oil exports still go via ships, but, if the need was pressing enough, I think we’d be surprised at how fast new railways and pipelines could be built. After all, the Chinese aren’t exactly known to be slow when it comes to building projects! So, with Russia supplying oil and coal, Iran supplying oil, and China supplying manpower and manufacturing (including high-tech), it's easy to see how such an alliance would create a formidable power.

The Russia-China-Iran alliance is also likely to include other countries. In addition to the former Soviet republics previously mentioned (which would have no real choice due to their locations and weakness), Syria, North Korea, Venezuela, and Cuba can be added to the list of likely willing military partners, and the fellow BRICS nations of Brazil and South Africa might lend some tacit support - at least economically and politically. India, considering its hostility to China and closer connections to Europe, might be somewhat more hesitant.

US power is totally dependent on the dollar

Of course, some have been warning about a dreaded Russia-China alliance for years (Willem Middelkoop, founder of the Commodity Discovery Fund and author of The Big Reset: War on Gold and the Financial Endgame, for example), but until now, nothing spectacular has happened. Indeed, many observers will point to the incredible wealth and power of the United States, and say that, despite all its issues, its position is unassailable. 

On the surface at least, the United States is the wealthiest country and has by far and away the most powerful military. But, this wealth and power are predicated on the US dollar being the world’s reserve currency. That has enabled the US to run up eye-watering debt without falling victim to hyperinflation and economic collapse. As long as most global trade and debt is denominated in US dollars, the Federal Reserve knows it can keep the printers going and there’s always going to be foreign demand for US currency, thus keeping the dollar relatively strong.

It is this that enables the US to spend more on defense than the next nine countries combined (Peter G. Peterson Foundation, 2021 figures). Although this makes the US seem untouchable, it should be remembered that the comparison is in USD, and a US dollar goes a lot further in China than the US when it comes to things like salaries and basic goods and supplies! But, more worryingly, if the US found itself in a multi-polar world with a competing reserve currency, it probably wouldn’t be able to maintain anywhere near this level of defense spending. 

If the US were to lose its ability to project its unstoppable military force anywhere in the world at a moment's notice, how would that change its relationship with the rest of the world? Of course, the US isn’t going to lose its status as a military superpower overnight - but, it might be forced to prioritize spending much more than it does now.

Do Putin and Jinping have a grand plan?

Could it be that Putin and Jinping saw which way the wind was blowing a long time ago, and have been playing the west for fools for years? Are they playing a game of chess while navel-gazing western politicians have been playing draughts? 

Well, the Chinese president’s recent visit to Moscow certainly suggests so. Most western observers assumed Xi Jinping was going to be playing peacemaker and pitching a peace plan for Ukraine (albeit one that would be unacceptable to Ukraine or the west). Instead, the talks resulted in Russia announcing that the Chinese yuan was now its preferred currency for international trade and settlements, including oil. And, let’s not forget that China also recently pulled off the impossible, brokering an agreement between erstwhile arch-enemies Saudia Arabia and Iran! 

Couple this with the fact that, since the 2008 global financial crisis (when it became clear to many that the existing western-dominated financial system was on life support), China and Russia have been stockpiling gold, and it seems obvious there’s something big afoot. Could it be a new gold or commodity-backed reserve currency? Will it become the currency of choice for the ever-expanding BRICS.

The new deglobalized reality

Prior to 2019, most westerners would have argued that China needed to keep the US and Europe sweet because its economy depended on exporting manufactured consumer goods. More astute observers would also have pointed to the amount of US debt that China holds. And, these things were true. But, over the last three years, the world has changed - much more than the vast majority of people realize. 

Whether by nature or design, the globalized world we knew before the pandemic has gone. Now, western manufacturers are scrambling to re-shore. At the same time, western consumers are losing spending power at the fastest rate in post-war history. Even in today’s materialistic society, when push comes to shove, people will choose to buy food over throw-away fashion. The Chinese planners saw this coming. They milked the west while they could, but they weren’t stupid and knew that the existing economic model had a limited shelf life.

I strongly suspect that they also reasoned that, as the reality of the situation dawns on the US administration, they will have little option but to take drastic measures, both domestically and internationally. Those specific measures will inevitably include massive bailouts and record money printing, making the US debt situation even more precarious - along with the introduction of a controversial CBDC (central bank digital currency).

The latter is to give the government the increased control it will need in the face of increasing internal dissent and to enable it to obscure the reality of the unfolding crisis. Eventually, following the tried and trusted historical pattern, the Chinese reasoned the likelihood was that the US government would choose to take the country to war to save the dollar and the American way. 

A similar forecast was probably made by Russian planners a decade or more ago. Putin’s decision to invade Crimea and eastern Ukraine in 2014 suggests that he had already decided to part ways with the West. Despite his public bravado, it seems unlikely he would have committed to this course if he hadn’t had some grander plan to build something else - something like a Russia-China-Iran bloc.

Bitcoin, gold, and peanut butter

Has the West, led by the United States, grown complacent and blundered into a carefully set trap? Has the Biden administration been too busy virtue signaling to see the warning signs? Have the Europeans been so preoccupied with romanticizing the war in Ukraine as a simple good vs. bad struggle that they’ve failed to take note of the wider global situation? Or, has the madness of the past few years thrown everyone so off-kilter that no one knows what the hell is going on anymore?

The only thing I can say for sure is that the Ukrainians and Russians on the ground are suffering through a nightmare, and there’s nothing good going to come from Moscow, Beijing, or Washington DC in the immediate future. As for those of us fortunate enough not to be living in a warzone (yet), I think our best bet is stocking up on Bitcoin, gold, and, to quote the late great John McAfee, “peanut butter.” 

Mind you, if the Cassandra Hypothesis is correct, this could all just be theater to distract us from what's really going on…